Decision modelling · Risk & decision modelling
What happens to our margin if steel, energy or the dollar moves?
Mid-sized firms carry the same commodity and currency risks as large ones, usually without a treasury team to measure them. We quantify the exposure, model the scenarios and help you decide what to hedge, pass on or accept.
What it's worth: A 10% rise in steel on £8m of annual purchases takes £800k out of margin.
Maurer rose, k = 0 … 360
Signs this is costing you
Does any of this sound familiar?
- Input costs such as metals, energy or packaging swing your margin from year to year.
- You buy or sell in euros or dollars and absorb the exchange rate.
- Customer prices are fixed for months while your costs move.
- Budgets rest on a single forecast with no range around it.
- A major investment or contract decision rests on one spreadsheet case.
What we do
How we approach risk & decision modelling
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1
Measure the exposure
We map which costs and revenues move with which prices and currencies, and by how much.
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2
Model the scenarios
Simulations of thousands of plausible paths for prices and rates, showing the range of outcomes for margin and cash rather than a single number.
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3
Compare the responses
Forward contracts, fixed-price supply deals, price indexation clauses, surcharges or holding more cash, compared on cost and protection.
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4
Set a policy you can run
A clear hedging and pricing policy, with a simple model your finance team updates each month.
What you get and what we need
What you get
Deliverables
- Exposure map by commodity and currency
- Scenario model for margin and cash
- Comparison of hedging and pricing responses
- Written risk and hedging policy
- Investment cases with ranges, not single points
What we need from you
Data and time
- Purchase and sales history by currency and material
- Supplier and customer contract terms
- Budget and cash flow forecasts
- Any existing hedges or fixed-price agreements
Exports or spreadsheets are fine. Cleaning the data is part of our job.
We don't execute trades or give regulated investment advice. We help you understand the exposure and design the policy; your bank or broker executes any hedges.
How we'd start
Fixed prices, agreed before we start
Decision Diagnostic
£5,000We size the risk & decision modelling opportunity in pounds and give you a 90-day plan.
Build
from £18,000We build the model or tool into your workflow. You own everything.
Analytics Partner
from £3,500We keep it monitored, refreshed and improving.
Other services
Other questions we answer
Data analytics · Pricing & quoting
“Are we leaving margin on the table?”
Data analytics · Forecasting & inventory
“Why are we out of stock and overstocked at the same time?”
Optimisation · Capacity & scheduling
“How do we get more out of the plant and crews we have?”
AI integration · Workflow automation
“Can we stop retyping the same information?”
Find out what a bad year for prices would cost
Book a 30-minute call. Bring one decision you'd like to make better, and we'll tell you how we'd size it.